The Horse Sense Blog compares the nonsense in today's news with good ol' fashioned horse sense

“…I shall speak forth my sentiments freely and without reserve.… It is only in this way that we can hope to arrive at truth, and fulfill the great responsibility which we hold to God and our country. Should I keep back my opinions at such a time, through fear of giving offense, I should consider myself as guilty of treason towards my country, and of an act of disloyalty toward the Majesty of Heaven, which I revere above all earthly kings.” - Patrick Henry, March 23, 1775

"The further a society drifts from truth the more it will hate those who speak it." - George Orwell

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Sunday, December 25, 2011

Obama’s Re-Election Victory Assured By Donald Trump, Ron Paul, And Jeb Bush

Here’s the Nonsense:  People are so unhappy with Obama that there’s no way he’ll get re-elected.

Here’s the Horse Sense:  Don’t ever doubt the ability of the Republicans to shoot themselves in the foot, and with recent events it’s virtually assured.

Barack Obama may not need to put forth much effort to get re-elected if his competitors keep up their current actions. Three people, any or all of which could throw this race to Obama, should be watched.  Keep your eyes on Donald Trump, Ron Paul, and Jeb Bush.  Here’s why:

Donald Trump, as you all know by now, switched his party affiliation from Republican to unaffiliated just before Christmas.  He says he’s fed up with the way the Republicans are handling things.  His past talk of a possible presidential run, even as an independent, may be more possible than ever.  An independent run by Trump, or anyone who could garner enough votes to have an impact, would make Obama a shoe-in for re-election.

Ron Paul, even though he clearly understands the gravity of the nation’s economic problems and that they are a result of out of control spending, doesn’t offer a platform acceptable to enough voters to get him elected.  Voters are taken aback at such things as his foreign policy views.  Dick Morris was quoted on this weekend saying, “Ron Paul remains terrifying. He is really the ultimate liberal in the race. He wants to legalize drugs, repeal the Patriot Act, slash our military spending, pull out of Afghanistan, and remove all limits on abortion. On these issues, he’s way, way to the left of Obama. What makes him a conservative is hard to tell. But, whatever he is, he would be a disaster as the Republican candidate. His bland assertion in the last debate, that 'anyone' will beat Obama is both self-serving and inaccurate. He wouldn’t. Anyone who votes for Paul and is not brought up short by his denuding us in our defenses against terrorism and his passivity in the face of Iranian nuclear weapons, has to realize that nominating him is tantamount to re-electing Obama."  And even if Paul doesn’t get the GOP nomination, there’s a distinct possibility that he may run as an independent which would still result in Obama’s re-election.

If Donald Trump and/or Ron Paul make an independent run for the presidency they would not win, but they would have enough of a following to take votes from the GOP nominee so that Obama is assured a victory.  This will be history repeating itself and we’ll watch another Ross Perot vs. George H. W. Bush type of disaster that got Bill Clinton elected with less than the majority of votes in 1992.  

But if that isn’t enough to cause you concern, some are suggesting Governor Jeb Bush might be a late entry to the race.  Recently Governor Bush wrote an opinion piece for the Wall Street Journal that was excellent.  Many have raised the question of whether he was testing the waters to decide if he should enter the 2012 presidential race.  And while the piece he wrote would pass muster with many, if not most conservatives, he still has the Bush name to live down.

George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush are both moderates, as proven by each of their records.  Add to that the fact that Obama’s administration has been running against George W. Bush since their campaign of 2008.  They’ve succeeded in getting many of the uninformed  voters to buy into the idea that the problems this nation is facing are entirely because of him.  (We all know they won’t accept responsibility for taking a bad situation and making it far, far worse.)  Even if Jeb Bush is shown to be a true conservative, unlike his father and brother, it is far too soon to try to make his mark in national politics.  With the country feeling the effects of an economy still struggling from a recession started under his brother’s presidency, Jeb Bush could be the reincarnation of George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, and Ronald Reagan combined and there is still no way he could live down his family’s presidential legacy at this time in history.  Whether he could at some point in years to come is a separate discussion, but the timing would be very bad to try it now.

So we have Trump and Paul who would split the vote if they ran as independent candidates and thereby assure Obama’s successful re-election.  And we have Bush and Paul (if he actually won the GOP nomination instead of running as an independent) who would drive voters to Obama and also assure an Obama re-election victory.  The efforts of these men can best be spent supporting whoever the GOP nominee is and thereby create a solid voting block to stand against Obama’s re-election chances.

Whether any or all of these men will do something to damage Republican chances at a victory remains to be seen.  And we cannot control what they choose to do.  However, American voters have a way to win regardless of who wins the presidency in 2012, even if it’s Barack Obama.

It is critically important that the conservative base of the GOP work extremely hard to get solid candidates elected in the House and Senate to take control of them.  The United States government was set up by the founders of this nation to have a check and balance system.  That system has faltered because we’ve allowed the wrong people to get control of it.  But if the right people are elected to control those bodies of our government, then they can keep the president, whoever that may be, in check and keep our government on the right track.  It’s called a check-and-balance system and it’s time we got it working for us again.