The Horse Sense Blog compares the nonsense in today's news with good ol' fashioned horse sense


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Wednesday, January 4, 2012

The Only Way Mitt Romney Will Not Be The GOP Nominee


Here’s the Nonsense:  Mitt Romney has done well in the primary race so far, but with candidates like Ron Paul moving up so rapidly it’s still anyone’s guess who will be the nominee.

Here’s the Horse Sense:  All the pieces are falling into place for Mitt Romney to be the GOP nominee, at least the pieces that the establishment are putting into place.  And there’s only one way that anyone else can get the nomination and that’s if grassroots voters show up in record numbers to push someone through to the nomination. 

Whether we like it or not, history does have a tendency to repeat itself.  And usually the reason it does is because people don’t learn from history.   As I discuss in my book Many Are Called But Few Can Manage, a very wise many taught me when I was young that smart people learn from their mistakes and wise people learn from the mistakes of others.  Most people aren’t even smart, let alone wise.  Oh, and by the way, that wise man was my father and I’ve learned over the years that he was very right.  And now we have a chance to heed wise advice and learn from history and apply those lessons to the GOP primary race.

Opensecrets.org, has put forth some very interesting information.  That information includes the contributions of the largest donors to the various campaigns.  From that information we can compare Mitt Romney’s campaign contributors and both President Obama’s 2008 and Bush’s 2004 campaign contributors.  (Please note:  The organizations noted in this comparison did not themselves donate, rather the money came from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families. Organization totals include subsidiaries and affiliates.)

Of the top 20 sources of contributions for each of their campaigns, it is interesting to note those they have in common between them.  All those I’ve listed were in Romney’s list with the others in either or both President Obama’s and President Bush’s list.  (Romney’s contributions are only for this campaign through Dec. 5, 2011, which is far from the entire campaign and the numbers could still go up throughout the rest of the election cycle.)

Goldman Sachs – Romney ($367,200), Obama ($1,013,091), Bush ($394,600)
Morgan Stanley – Romney ($199,800), Obama ($512,232), Bush ($603,480)
Citigroup Inc. –Romney ($57,050), Obama ($736,771), Bush ($320,820)
JP Morgan Chase – Romney ($112,250), Obama ($808,799)
UBS AG – Romney ($73,750), Obama ($532,674)
Credit Suisse Group – Romney ($203,750), Bush ($326,040)
Bank of America – Romney ($126,500), Bush ($218,261)
PriceWaterhouseCoopers – Romney ($118,250), Bush ($514,250)

If you look at opensecrets.org you can see what the other candidates for 2012 have brought in also and no one has brought in large numbers from so many sources as Mitt Romney. 

Mitt Romney is the favorite of the establishment and is being pushed hard for the nomination by them.  Many of Romney’s large donation sources are the same as those of President Obama in 2008 and President Bush in 2004.  If this is any measure of what the plan is to choose the next president (and you don’t have to believe in conspiracy theories to think this way), then Romney is a virtual shoe-in. 

If he is too moderate for you, as he is for most conservatives, then there is only one way to make sure he is not the nominee.  The Iowa Caucuses were just held.  We’re a long way from the end of the primaries.  In fact, since Iowa is a caucus and not a primary, there have still been no primary votes to date.  If the grassroots of America would get out and vote in the primaries it is still possible to push the nomination to a more conservative candidate. 

The choice is not final yet and it is important for voters to get out even in the primaries and support their candidate.  If we do not, the establishment will have their way once again and Mitt Romney will be the inevitable nominee, just as other moderates like John McCain, Bob Dole and George H. W. Bush were in the past.  You saw how well McCain and Dole did in the general election.  And if you don’t remember, George H. W. Bush got elected the first time only because the country hoped he’d carry on Reagan’s legacy.  When he proved not to and turned back to his moderate roots he lost in his re-election bid. 

Moderates don’t win elections against progressives like Barack Obama.  They are too much like them.  Voters need clear choices between conservative positions and what moderates/progressives are offering.  The GOP must nominate a true conservative or the country will lose, even if Romney wins.  It is up to the voters to get out and take control of the primaries if they don’t want the same kind of choices in the general election that we’ve had for over two decades.