The Horse Sense Blog compares the nonsense in today's news with good ol' fashioned horse sense


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"The further a society drifts from truth the more it will hate those who speak it." - George Orwell

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Monday, February 20, 2012

Is It Down To Mitt Or Rick?


Here’s the Nonsense:  Newt Gingrich is out of the picture.  Mitt did him in with multi-millions of dollars spent on running thousands and thousands of ads to destroy him. Now it’s down to Mitt or Rick for the GOP nomination.

Here’s the Horse Sense:  Gingrich might be down.  He might even be out… but I sure wouldn’t bet on it yet. 

With Romney’s attack machine warming up to go after Santorum and the media’s hatred of Santorum’s social conservatism and religion it is very possible Santorum could find himself back in third, or even in fourth place again.

On the other hand, if Romney stumbles in Michigan and even in Ohio it could be a death knell for his candidacy.  He’s been campaigning for 5 years and still can’t close the deal.  Conservatives see through his phony claims to conservatism and the Midwest could be his undoing. 

If either of these happen it is very possible that Newt Gingrich could rise again.  Newt is a fighter and he’s not given up yet.  With more debates on the way they could be just the opportunity Newt “Super-Debater” Gingrich needs to re-emerge.

All three candidates have their problems, and any of them could find themselves out of the race.  Briefly here’s what each one faces:

Romney is masquerading as a conservative and that is not going over well with voters.  Some voters are falling for the line that because he's a successful businessman that he's therefore a conservative.  But most see through the fallacy of that.  Voters are also seeing that his method of campaigning is constant vicious attacks on other candidates instead of telling how he will fix things and they want solutions, not a disparager.

Santorum’s faith and morals will be the center of attacks (as they always are for people who live what they believe).  Ironically those could also be what boosts him even further in the polls.  Social conservatism has caused more successful elections for Republicans since the 1930s than economic issues have.

Gingrich’s negatives along with many lies about his past have been aired to death. Voters may be tiring of them and also seeing through the Romney attack machine's modus operandi.  And Gingrich spells out what he will do with more clarity and effectiveness than all other candidates combined.  The key for him is to be heard by the voters.  When he is heard he wins.

We can’t be sure what’s going to happen among these candidates.  But there is one other thing to keep in mind.  We know that if Romney fails, he establishment Republicans will push to bring someone else into the race.  They do not want a conservative candidate.  One of the names the establishment Republicans will consider quite seriously is Jeb Bush, which would be a huge loser for the Republican Party.  Not because of anything about Jeb, but because of his name.  No candidate could live down the Bush name and history of his father and brother in the presidency the way the Democrats will portray them.  

Whether Jeb is a good man or not is not the point.  Jeb would be a bigger gift to the Democrats campaign than anything else that could possibly happen.  But then again, the establishment Republicans are known for a consistent record … of losing.