The Horse Sense Blog compares the nonsense in today's news with good ol' fashioned horse sense


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Sunday, February 5, 2012

It’s Over. The Nomination Is Locked Up. We Can All Go Home Now.

Here’s the Nonsense:  Mitt Romney won the Nevada Caucus thereby locking up the GOP Presidential Primary Race and will get the nomination.

Here’s the Horse Sense:  Mitt Romney has won 8.8% of the delegates needed to win the nomination.  There’s a long way to go, a lot of voters who are not happy with him, and plenty of time for things to change.

The last time I checked 8.8% of something wasn’t enough to lock up anything.  Try making an 8.8% payment on your mortgage and see if you get to keep the house without paying anything else. 

Mitt Romney has won 3 of the 5 primary/caucus contests so far.  There are a total of 56 primaries and caucuses (Don’t forget Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, American Samoa, District of Columbia, Northern Marianas, and Guam in addition to the 50 states). 

A candidate must have 1144 delegates to win the GOP nomination.  Mitt has won 101 delegates so far (That’s according to the Wall Street Journal.  They show the highest number I could find for him as of this writing.  The numbers vary depending on where you look.).  Those 101 delegates are only 8.8% of the delegates he needs to be nominated.  Far from enough to claim that anything is a sure bet.

But let’s be more generous.  Let’s give Mitt the benefit of all doubt and assume he wins 100% of the delegates from Minnesota (40 delegates), Colorado (36 delegates), and Missouri (52 delegates), whose races are Tuesday, Feb. 7th. (Yes, Missouri is non-binding and their delegates won’t be awarded until March 17th, but once again, we’re giving Romney the benefit of the doubt.)  Between those 3 states that would add another 128 delegates. 

And if he wins 100% of the delegates from Maine, whose caucuses end Feb. 11th, that would give him another 24 delegates on top of that.  Of course because of proportional awarding of delegates he won’t get 100% of the delegates unless no one else gets any votes whatsoever.  But if no one else got any votes and he did get 100% of the delegates, then adding them to his current total of 101 would give him a total count of 253 delegates.  That’s still only 22.1% of the total he needs to win the nomination. 

Try driving 110.5 miles of the Indy 500 (that’s 22.1% of the 500 mile race) and claiming victory in the race.  Somehow I don’t think you’ll get the prize.

No matter how you measure it, this race is far from over.  Yes, Romney has more money than any of the other candidates.  Sure the GOP establishment is using all their power to try to force him on the voters as the nominee.  (They’ve even gotten some so-called conservatives to buy into this and throw their support behind him.  And I say “so-called” because supporting him when there are still actual conservatives available in the race shines a light on the veracity of their claim to be conservative.)  Yes, the Democrats and the media are pushing him to be the nominee by trying to use reverse psychology on the voters.  Any and all of these things could drive some of the other candidates out of the race.  

Romney may even win a number of the primaries and caucuses in a row.  But in February 2008 Barack Obama won a string of primaries in a row and yet Hillary Clinton made a very strong comeback in March throwing Obama a curve in the race.  Ultimately Obama won, but how many times in life have we seen someone come back from behind to win a contest?  There is still quite a bit of time for things to happen to shake up this race even more than it already has been.

The media, the Democrats, and the establishment Republicans want this nomination process over and want voters to accept Mitt Romney as the GOP nominee.  But we don’t have to.

In recent days more and more voters are expressing their disgust at being forced to accept a nominee they don’t want.  Voters are sick and tired of being told who their choice is going to be. 

Mitt Romney is not making the inroads with voters that his campaign is trying to claim that he is.  He runs ads saying something like “Romney’s the true ally of social conservatives.”  Of course, what the marketing wizards he’s hired don’t realize is that the public aren’t buying it.  They know the difference between him being a social conservative and being an “ally” of social conservatives.  They realize that an ally that isn’t trustworthy can abandon you the minute conflict arises.  (Yes, a true friend never abandons their friend, but the U. S. was a true friend to Israel until this administration and we’ve watched as this old, trusted best friend we have in the Middle East has been thrown to the wolves by the U. S., it’s ally and “friend.”  So when another liberal like Mitt “Barack” Romney says he’s a true ally of social conservatives can it really be trusted?) 

Upon winning the Nevada Caucus it was claimed that he’d made inroads with conservatives because they are the ones who primarily voted for him there.  I am doubtful that that is the case.  They ask voters if they’re conservative and get a “yes” for an answer.  Well, if you ask Romney if he’s conservative he says yes, and his record screams liberal.  Just because someone claims to be something doesn’t mean it’s true.  Nancy Pelosi claims to be a devout Catholic but her positions on the issues are in direct conflict with the Catholic Church thereby proving that she cannot be a devout Catholic, no matter what she may claim or think.

Voters realize that Romney’s record is not conservative.  They realize he is not what he’s claiming to be.  In fact, they see in him exactly what they saw in Barack Obama, a man who has moved to the political center to get elected.  Maybe that’s why George Soros said that Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are basically the same.

Rick Santorum is speaking out and getting noticed.  He may have more of a future than many of us (me included) thought he did.  Newt Gingrich is, as I’ve said here before, like a Timex watch that takes a lickin’ and keeps on tickin’, so we shouldn’t count him out yet either.

And Ron Paul is up to something which we see from an article by Amy Gardner in the Washington Post on Feb. 1st recent reports that he and Romney have been working towards an alliance on some things.  So the message to you Ron Paul supporters is don’t think he’s much different from other politicians.  It sounds like he’s making his deals, too.

So here’s what you should do during this primary season before you decide it’s all over:
  • Fight hard for your candidate in the primaries and support them with all your heart. 
  • Remember that what you are being told by political parties and the media is designed to manipulate you into doing what they want and is not there to help you make an informed decision.
  • Don’t believe all the numbers and polls you read.  There are efforts being made to skew poll results to try to manipulate what the voters will do.
  • Keep an open mind and learn about all the candidates.  Don’t believe everything someone else says.  Listen to the candidates and hear things from them directly, not through rumors or their competitors.
  • When it’s all done and a nominee is chosen, just remember that this is the last chance we have to turn this nation around. The United States is about to fail and take us all down with it. Even if your candidate didn’t win the nomination in the end, just remember that any of the remaining GOP candidates will be far superior to what we have now and can help stop the collapse.  That will buy time so we can work towards more needed change in the next election.

Remember, it ain’t over ‘til it’s over.