The Horse Sense Blog compares the nonsense in today's news with good ol' fashioned horse sense

“…I shall speak forth my sentiments freely and without reserve.… It is only in this way that we can hope to arrive at truth, and fulfill the great responsibility which we hold to God and our country. Should I keep back my opinions at such a time, through fear of giving offense, I should consider myself as guilty of treason towards my country, and of an act of disloyalty toward the Majesty of Heaven, which I revere above all earthly kings.” - Patrick Henry, March 23, 1775

"The further a society drifts from truth the more it will hate those who speak it." - George Orwell

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Monday, May 7, 2012

Can Romney Hold His 10 Point Lead Against Obama With Independents?

Here’s the Nonsense:  Mitt Romney cannot possibly attract Independents as well as Obama can.

Here’s the Horse Sense:  Mitt Romney can attract more Independents than Obama because even though Romney is a moderate, conservative Independents will easily choose him over Obama.

For some time the left has figured that Romney was the easiest candidate for Obama to beat.  After all, Romney is a moderate by record and the left was sure that conservatives would never embrace him.  But they missed something that may be playing in Romney’s favor.

Democrats believe that Independents are primarily left-leaning, but they are wrong.  Independents are made up of two distinct groups.  For years Independents were primarily moderate or left-leaners.  But in recent years their numbers have started to include numerous conservatives, many of whom are Tea Party members. 

Contrary to what the Democrats and the mainstream media think, the Tea Party is not made up of only Republicans.  Many conservatives have gotten fed up with the weak leadership in the Republican Party.  They have left the party to become Independents.  Along with them are some Democrats that feel the same way about their party.  They realize that there really is no such thing as a Democrat who is a true conservative.  As a result, they, too, have become Independents.  When the Tea Party formed a few years ago many of these people were attracted to it because they could be with others of similar conservative values.  The result is that estimates show that up to 40% of the Tea Party is made up of people who call themselves Independent.

When Mitt Romney came along those in the Tea Party initially rejected his candidacy because he is not a conservative, contrary to claims he and some pundits have made for him.  But as the GOP choices have dwindled it has come to a point where decisions will have to be made about the future of the country.  Given their choices, those conservatives will choose Romney over Obama. 

The conservatives realize probably more than anyone that avoiding a reelection of Obama has got to be the priority in this election.  America won't get another chance to save this country if they do not succeed in the 2012 elections.  The conservative Independents may not feel Romney is the best choice that could be offered, but he is far from what Obama is.  Romney loves America and wants the same opportunity for his children and grandchildren that he had.  He does not want to change the entire system that America’s Founding Fathers put in place when they started this country.  He may be oriented towards larger government than the conservatives would like, but when it comes down to it they realize that Romney is a much better choice than Obama. Romney is not seen as the person who can or will turn everything around. The nation cannot be turned around that quickly.  Rather, he is seen as only one step in a long process of many election cycles needed to return this nation to what it once was.  Some of those election cycles will have better choices in candidates, but over the long haul the combination of many, many successful election cycles is what will return us to the American dream.

Obama and the left may be banking on Independents being left-leaning, but that’s only because they aren’t considering that many Independents are actually right-leaning conservatives.  With a good many of those Independents turning to Romney the impact on Obama’s campaign is significant.  And with their commitment to save this country, if enough conservatives support Romney he will have an advantage that Obama cannot take away.