The Horse Sense Blog compares the nonsense in today's news with good ol' fashioned horse sense


“…I shall speak forth my sentiments freely and without reserve.… It is only in this way that we can hope to arrive at truth, and fulfill the great responsibility which we hold to God and our country. Should I keep back my opinions at such a time, through fear of giving offense, I should consider myself as guilty of treason towards my country, and of an act of disloyalty toward the Majesty of Heaven, which I revere above all earthly kings.” - Patrick Henry, March 23, 1775


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Monday, December 29, 2014

Why Conservatives Reject Jeb Bush & Why A 3rd Party Won't Work

Here's the Nonsense:  Even if Jeb Bush isn't everyone's favorite choice, he has shown himself as a conservative on a number of issues and should be supported.  If not, then we will need a 3rd party to win again.

Here's the Horse Sense:  Jeb cannot be considered conservative or a good candidate for any reason.  But if you think a 3rd party is the answer, you really don't know the condition of our country.

Within 2 days of the 2012 election I stated that Jeb Bush would be the preferred nominee for the Republican nomination in 2016.  Many were shocked.  One radio host even stopped me during an interview and marked his calendar to note my prediction and said he'd watch to see.  Well, now we're seeing it come to pass.  A new CNN poll is reporting that Jeb Bush has surged to the lead among Republicans for the 2016 nomination.  And it's a dramatic lead with the top 10 potential candidates coming in with these results:

Bush 23%
Christie 13%
Carson 7%
Huckabee 6% / Paul 6%
Rubio 5%
Ryan 5%
Cruz 4%
Jindal 4%
Perry 4%

The poll was supposed to be taken of Republicans and Independents who lean Republican.  If the poll is accurate, it means that the American people really didn't mean what they said by their votes in the midterm elections last month.  The message from that election was loud and clear that they wanted Obama stopped and the establishment Republicans stopped.  Yet according to these poll results, they prefer establishment Republicans.  

We should always note that when a candidate is easy to beat, the left either don't say much or make positive comments about the candidate. But when they scream about a candidate and make all sorts of ridiculous and false claims about them we should know that that candidate is too big a threat to them.  They aren't complaining about Jeb, they're liking him.  They scream about Cruz, just like they did about Palin.  And they used to take potshots at Reagan, too.  

These poll results don't answer the question the mainstream media is asking, which is why conservatives reject John Ellis Bush (Jeb).  They can't understand why the base, which are by a far majority conservative, reject Jeb.  I've even read lists of Jeb's accomplishments as governor of Florida that claim to show his conservative side on many social issues.  The reporters ask how he can be rejected when he's so conservative on those issues and only disagrees with the base on 2 issues.  

But those issues are amnesty for criminal immigrant invaders and a national Common Core curriculum for our schools.  Even if Jeb is conservative on all other issues (which I don't believe that he is), those two issues alone are enough to disqualify him from being considered to be a conservative.  What the left (and that includes the establishment GOP) don't understand is that there is no negotiation on some issues.  These are two of those issues.  If you reject the conservative position on them, that's enough to prove you're not conservative.

And unlike the left, who have no standards or true values because they have no morality, true conservatives understand that being wishy washy on issues like these means you're spineless, not extreme.  But if they want to call us extreme, so be it.  I, like any other conservative, will proudly wear the label of extreme if that's how they want to refer to us.

A good example of Jeb's wishy washiness on social issues is his record of supporting abortion in limited circumstances.  Sorry, but a parent who truly loves their child would die for that child.  You cannot justify killing the child because of a terrible event that happens to you.  It's not the baby's fault that something bad happens or could happen.  Something bad happening doesn't justify killing someone to make your life easier or longer.  Two good examples have been reported in the recent past where mother's gave their lives to save their unborn children.  You can read about them here and here.  Real love sacrifices for the best interest of others.  But Jeb, while saying he's pro-life, is willing to give up some of his principles by allowing an exception so that some people still could kill their child.  A true conservative stands on principle, even if it's not popular or comfortable.

So, with those areas where Jeb has proven himself unworthy to be considered a true conservative it's no wonder that conservatives reject him.  And it's also no surprise that the Democrats and establishment Republicans don't understand.  They'd have to have principles to understand.

But with the early push to get Jeb in place as the front runner for the 2016 nomination, we are presented with a clear question.  And I have to admit that I'm not sure what the answer is anymore.

I've always taken the position that conservatives should vote their hearts in the primaries, but vote with their head in the general election.  That means that you fight hard during the primaries to get your candidate to win the nomination.  But once the primaries are concluded, if your candidate didn't win then you should be rational and vote logically for the better of the Democrat or Republican candidate in the general election.  

That means that when conservatives didn't win the nomination when George H. W. Bush won it, or when Bob Dole won it, or when George W. Bush won it, or when John McCain won it, or when Mitt Romney won it, I supported them anyway because they were the better choice than their Democrat opponents.  I'm no longer sure that was the best position to take.  Had we fought back then to establish a 3rd party we would have had time to build it to enough strength to win elections today.  (Go to end of column and read note by * to read further discussion of why George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush also fit into this group.)

Matt Barber, in one of his most thought-provoking columns to date, has written a very important column you can read here.  He makes excellent points that have me thinking and possibly rethinking my position of supporting the Republican Party for so long.  

I have always thought we needed to fight to take the Republican Party back to its conservative roots and a re-embracing of its platform.  But that has not succeeded.  Instead we've allowed the establishment GOP so much power that they have used it to sell out the values of the base and become nothing more than helpmates to the Democrats.  
The problem is that we only have one election cycle left to turn this country in the right direction.  2016 is the final chance or we will lose the ability and freedoms to take it back.  Some say we're almost over the cliff, but I have come to conclude that we're already over the cliff and as the tail end of our republic goes flying past careening over the cliff this is our last chance to grab it and try to pull it back.  

Given that that is the situation we face, there is not enough time for a 3rd party, as some want, to be formed and built to strength to take the country back.  It would take numerous election cycles for a new party to become strong enough to win a national election and we don't have numerous cycles left before it's too late.  We've got ONE.  So it seems that our only hope is to fight with everything we have to take the Republican Party back.  But that fight must start now with the efforts of most Americans being involved.  

Usually most voters don't pay attention to what's going on or get involved until after Labor Day of election year.  That gives about 60 days until the election and we don't have that luxury.  We must start now to win the primaries early in 2016 so that we control who the candidate is.  That applies to the congressional elections that year, too.  Waiting until after the primaries, until after Labor Day, is too late to do anything.  That's what happened in this year's midterms and we ended up with mostly incumbent establishment Republican candidates to vote for against Democrats.  That cannot happen again.

So, do I think it's time to abandon the GOP?  While I struggle with this question, I'm not ready to give up, but I do think we're on our last moments of opportunity.  If we don't act now, it will be too late to act later.

UPDATE 12-31-14:  After receiving questions in the past 2 days about my position on this, and in light of what I wrote two weeks ago about Donald Trump, I will say that I do believe the best solution for the Republican Party is to find a businessman or businesswoman who understands how to solve problems and run an organization efficiently as their candidate for president.  I have yet to see a politician with the kind of needed mindset to solve America's problems.  I doubt the politicians would accept a businessperson, but it is necessary.  And, as I said a couple weeks ago, if Trump decides to run for president I have no doubt his skills would get him the nomination.  In fact, if Trump is the Republican nominee, it won't matter who the Democrat nominee is because Trump will win the presidency.  The exception to that will be if the establishment Republicans would succeed undermining someone they'd see as a newcomer to their game.  I have no doubt that someone like Trump would be a threat to the system they've set up and the establishment would rather have a Democrat win than someone from outside their clique.  But, I will warn those who doubt that if a marketing expert like Trump runs, even the best efforts of the politicians most likely won't be able to stop him. Marketing is far more powerful than people outside that world realize.    


* I mentioned that George H. W. Bush and George W. Bush fit in with the establishment losers in the list of Republican candidates.  We have not had a true conservative win the Republican nomination since Ronald Reagan.  George H. W. Bush may have been Reagan's vice president, but he was selected to bring in Republican votes that Reagan couldn't win, especially the northeast (home of the establishment GOP), not because he was conservative.  Go back and learn about the 1980 primaries and you'll see that the big difference between Bush and Reagan was the fact that Reagan was conservative but Bush was part of the establishment.  Yes, George H. W. Bush won election in 1988, which he won simply because he was Reagan's VP and the American people hoped he'd continue Reagan's policies.  But he lost in 1992 because he abandoned the Reagan policies and when the American people saw that, they dumped him.  

Then in 2000 when George W. Bush won, it was not because he was conservative (remember, he called himself a compassionate conservative because he didn't want people to think he was one of those extreme right-wingers who had no heart), it was because America had Clinton fatigue and that played against Al Gore.  The fact that Gore has no personality helped, too.  And W's reelection in 2004 was simply because we were in a war (America has always leaned to reelecting any president in office during a war) and also John Kerry was another mannequin candidate that had no appeal to the American people.  It was not about Bush being conservative, it was mostly about luck.  Had there been a skilled politician with the campaigning ability of Bill Clinton on the national scene in 2000 or 2004, there's no doubt in my mind that America would have fallen for him and elected him over Bush.  

America has not had a conservative nominee for president since Ronald Reagan.  And the only reason we had Reagan is because the grassroots got upset in 1976 when Reagan didn't get the nomination and Ford got it instead.  They rose up and worked hard so that in 1980 Reagan won.  That's exactly what has to happen now for 2016 or whoever the establishment candidate is (probably another Bush!), will be another disaster for America.