The Horse Sense Blog compares the nonsense in today's news with good ol' fashioned horse sense


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Tuesday, February 23, 2016

When Bush Dropped Out And His Followers Went To Other Candidates, How Much Was Trump's Lead Hurt?

Here's the Nonsense:  When an establishment candidate like Bush drops out of the race, his followers will move to another establishment candidate like Rubio and thereby cut into Trump's lead.

Here's the Horse Sense:  Studies are showing that just because a candidate drops out of the race doesn't mean that their followers will move to the nearest ideological competitor. 

In an interesting little article, the Washington Examiner is reporting on a new Rasmussen Reports poll that looks at where Jeb Bush's followers moved their support when Bush dropped out of the race. It's been believed by the other campaigns, the media, and the Republican establishment that if Bush left the race it would hurt Trump as Bush followers would move to another establishment candidate.  

One of the great hopes of the GOPe (GOP establishment) has been that as the number of Republican candidates in the race diminishes and their followers find other candidates to support, that Trump's lead would not just diminish, but would cause him to fall behind and hopefully leave the race.  But this new poll is probably ruining their day.

Rasmussen's new poll shows that many Bush supporters have moved to Trump, which has increased his lead in their polling by 5 points.  I'm sure that has the GOPe spitting nails.

But what they don't understand is that it was inevitable.  Elon University Polling did an analysis of the candidate's support and the results are very interesting.  



The idea that followers of a particular candidate will all go to their nearest ideological competitor aren't accurate.  As you can see, the poll shows 31% of Bush supporters going to Trump.  If Kasich were to drop out, 29% of his followers would go to Trump.  If Cruz dropped out, 43% of his followers would go to Trump.  

As you study these results it is apparent that no matter who drops out, Trump remains the frontrunner.

This certainly must have the GOPe in distress.  The ways for the GOPe to stop Trump are dwindling and it's even questionable if they can at this point.