The Horse Sense Blog compares the nonsense in today's news with good ol' fashioned horse sense


“…I shall speak forth my sentiments freely and without reserve.… It is only in this way that we can hope to arrive at truth, and fulfill the great responsibility which we hold to God and our country. Should I keep back my opinions at such a time, through fear of giving offense, I should consider myself as guilty of treason towards my country, and of an act of disloyalty toward the Majesty of Heaven, which I revere above all earthly kings.” - Patrick Henry, March 23, 1775


"The further a society drifts from truth the more it will hate those who speak it." - George Orwell

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Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Republicans Who Won't Vote For Trump vs. Republicans Who Won't Vote For Cruz

Here's the Nonsense:  There are too many Republicans who will never support Donald Trump as the nominee for him to win the general election.

Here's the Horse Sense:  The Republicans who say they will never vote for Trump are outnumbered by those say they will never support Cruz.  Cruz as nominee would assure a Democrat victory. 

We keep hearing that Trump has lots of Republicans who won't vote for him in the general election if he's the nominee.  We had that problem in 2012 when some Republicans wouldn't vote for Mitt Romney.  So now, in an attempt to convince you to run as fast as you can from supporting Trump, we are being told that people should get behind Ted Cruz.  But has anyone bothered to compare how many Republicans there are who won't vote for Trump  vs. how many won't vote for Cruz?

In a new poll the New York Times has found that there are more Republicans who would not support Ted Cruz than would not support Donald Trump.  Here's a chart from their results:



Something Cruz supporters don't seem to understand is that their candidate is not only unelectable in the general election, but he is also rejected by more Republicans than Trump.  He has a very narrow portion of Republicans who support him and, even though many who don't support him would if he became the nominee, fewer would support him than Trump.  

When you add to this fact that Cruz does not win over Democrats or disenfranchised voters who have not voted in years, yet Trump draws in many of both categories (20% of Democrats say they'd vote for Trump and many people who have never voted or haven't voted in many years are registering to vote for him), it boils down to the fact that Cruz would lose the general election probably by large numbers to the Democrat nominee.

Now there are people like Erick Erickson from Redstate that says he wouldn't vote for Trump and that Trump would lose to Hillary but Cruz wouldn't.  Of course Erickson hates Trump so much that this week on her radio show he even told Laura Ingraham that if Cruz and Trump became running mates, even if Cruz were at the top of the ticket, he would not vote for them because Trump was part of the ticket.  

But Erickson's ridiculous point about Trump not winning against Hillary because of some polls he's read is really pointless.  Before Trump entered the presidential race the polls said he would not do well and his campaign would fail. Yet about a month after entering the race he hit the top of the polls and has held a commanding lead ever since.

The problem with logic like Erickson's is that he doesn't realize that polls between people who aren't running against each other really don't mean much.  Once they are actually in a race against each other and the voters see how they are dealing with each other, then the voters get more serious about their poll responses.  So, if Trump is the Republican nominee and Hillary is the Democrat nominee, at that point when the general election is in full swing, then polling will have more merit.

In the meantime, the issue Cruz supporters need to grapple with is that their candidate cannot succeed if he is the nominee because he not only can't draw people in as well as Trump can.

Our nation is in more trouble than at any time in our history. This is because of all the failed policies of the politicians the voters have kept in office.  If you believe that the real issue in the general election is beating the Democrats, then it's time to end the back and forth and get behind the person who can draw in a large coalition to win.