The Horse Sense Blog compares the nonsense in today's news with good ol' fashioned horse sense

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Wednesday, April 20, 2016

Cruz Can Only Win Nomination By Circumventing The Will Of The Voters

Here's the Nonsense:  Ted Cruz can still get the nomination. Those who support him should hold and and fight for victory regardless of what everyone else thinks.

Here's the Horse Sense:  Cruz was the last candidate who had a chance at getting the 1237 delegates needed to win the nomination.  It's now mathematically impossible and instead of trying to force his will on the voters, Ted needs to accept his failure and bow out of the race.

Contrary to what Ted Cruz and his supporters may think, Ted can no longer win the Republican nomination through the will of the American people.  There are not enough delegates left for him to get the 1237 he needs for the nomination on the first ballot at the Republican convention.  He may continue to claim that "playing by the rules" can get him the nomination at a contested convention, but the fact is that the American people continually refusing to give him enough primary victories have made it clear that they reject his candidacy. 

Ted Cruz has lost the majority of votes cast by the voters and any effort now to continue is only to try to subvert the will of the American people.  

I'm sure you've read all sorts of things in recent weeks about how Cruz has worked the rules in various states to take control of delegates in hopes that there'd be a contested convention and force a second, third, or more ballots.  The entire idea has been a GOPe effort to stop Donald Trump. The view of the establishment, fully embraced by Ted Cruz, was to keep Trump from getting to the needed 1237 delegates prior to the Republican convention.  If they can keep Trump from attaining that number, then the first ballot would fail and there would be continuous votes until a winner emerged with the required delegate count for the nomination.

Cruz's game plan for some time has been based on the knowledge that he really couldn't get enough wins in the primaries to get him the 1237 delegates needed prior to the convention for the nomination.  Once he realized that, he chose to realign himself with the GOPe and work to keep Trump from attaining those delegates, too.

Cruz has thought that by manipulating the delegate system he could get his people appointed delegates to the convention.  While they would have to vote for Trump on the first ballot, when the numbers fell short of the 1237, they'd be free on the second ballot to vote as they choose and they'd vote for Ted.  And, if it didn't quite work out on the second ballot, he figured he'd be able to negotiate for enough additional delegates to win it by the third.

What Cruz's ego hasn't figured is that once the GOPe would have Trump out of the way after the first ballot, they would dump Cruz and move to bring in their own nominee on a later ballot.  Cruz may be an establishment candidate (and if you doubt it, you need to remember that he was part of the establishment Bush administration and has filled his campaign with Bush advisors) but he's hated by the GOPe because they find him insufferable.  

It's been said over and over again throughout his life that he thinks he is always right, has a huge ego, and is terrible to be around for any length of time.  From his time in college to today, people who work closely around him don't like him.  In fact, when at Princeton his roommate has said he had a terrible personality and was not liked.  He said that girls in the female part of the dorm would ask his roommate to keep him away from their area.  At Harvard Ted refused to study with other students unless they'd gone to a select group of Ivy League schools for their undergraduate work because he wouldn't lower himself to studying with people who went to what he considered to be inferior schools.  While in the Bush administration it has been said that when a meeting was scheduled and people knew he'd be in the meeting they'd look for ways to get out of the meeting or, if they did have to attend, to keep it short and end it quickly so they didn't have to deal with him.

But Ted believes in his father's words from the time he was a little boy, that God has anointed him to be king and lead America.  Clearly that upbringing encouraged a huge ego and resulted in an unlikable personality such as I've described above.  That personality, too, would also explain much of the dislike for him among his senate colleagues.  

Like a typical politician or trial lawyer, Ted's trying to find a way to manipulate his way to get what he wants.  And in this case, he wants the presidency, even though the American people have made it clear that he is not their choice.

Ted's view is that as long as it's within the rules, then it's okay (I wrote about this a couple of posts ago.  Click here if you'd like to read it.).  But there's a higher standard than rules and that's morality.  

A Constitution-loving American would look at a bigger picture and the spirit with which our founders formed our nation. That kind of candidate would recognize that our founders created our nation to be controlled by the people (remember that "of, by and for the people" stuff?).  The founders did not create the system the political parties use today to make rules to control who can win.  The founders wanted this nation controlled by the people, but like the rest of the GOPe, Ted feels he knows best what's good for us.  The moral choice would be to respect the Constitution and, therefore, the will of the people.

Contrary to what Ted tries to claim, he has not been the big winner over Trump.  Trump has won 37.5% more votes than Cruz.  (Trump has won 8.8 million votes and Cruz has won 6.4 million)  But more important, after Trump's huge win in New York yesterday, there are no longer enough delegates left for Cruz to win the nomination.  Put another way, there are 674 delegates left to be awarded in the primary races. Cruz needs 683 to get the nomination. It's mathematically impossible for Ted to win enough delegates even if he wins 100% of the remaining primary races and all their delegates.

Trump has 848 delegates compared to Cruz's 554.  Trump only needs 389 of the remaining 683 to get the nomination on the first ballot.  Given Cruz and Kasich's mathematical impossibility to get to 1237, we will now start to see voters who are opposed to a Democrat presidency begin move their support to Trump.  Certainly some will stay with Kasich and Cruz, but movement toTrump will begin by those who realize it's time for the party to coalesce around a candidate to beat the Democrats.  The distance between Trump and the remaining Republican candidates will only continue to grow.

When you add Cruz's failing favorability (There are more people who say they would never vote for Cruz than say they would never vote for Trump.  Click here to my post about this a few weeks ago.) and his downward poll numbers, things are looking good for a first ballot nomination of Trump.

Next week are 5 important races including Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island that represent 172 delegates.  In every one of these states Trump is leading in the current polls.  With the landslide in New York yesterday it's very likely he will move up even further in most polls prior to the voting next week.

In addition, Cruz continues to fall in the polls and especially in approval ratings.  Most Americans agree that the voters should decide the nominee, not that delegates should be able to make the decision as the GOPe has set up in the rules for second ballot and beyond.

Following those contests we will see New Jersey's race with 51 delegates and California with 172 delegates on June 7. Trump is polling very strong in New Jersey and ahead in California.  And these don't even include other primaries still to be held between now and then, most of which Trump is polling well in.

If Ted Cruz really cared about America he would support the will of the American people over his own desires and support the choice of the people.  But my guess is that he will be too bitter to do that when it finally becomes clear to him that he's not getting his way.