The Horse Sense Blog compares the nonsense in today's news with good ol' fashioned horse sense


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Tuesday, April 12, 2016

Trump Needs Fewer Remaining Delegates To Win 2016 Nomination Than Romney Did At This Time In 2012

Here's the Nonsense:  Trump is on the ropes.  He needs almost 60% of the remaining delegates to get to the required 1237 for the nomination.  


Here's the Horse Sense:  Never count a guy who's spent his life winning as out before it's over.  Not only is 60% doable, but Trump is actually ahead of where Romney was at this point in 2012.


Contrary to what the media, the GOPe (GOP establishment) and his competitors want you to believe, Donald Trump has a very good chance of winning the GOP nomination.  He's ahead of where Romney was at this point in his campaign in 2012.  All the chatter out there against Trump's chances are a concerted effort to stop him, but it's way too early to doubt whether The Donald can do it.


If you haven't figured it out by now, not only are the mainstream media and Democrats untrustworthy and dishonest, but most of the sources we've all trusted for many years as good, conservative, honest sources are now being shown to be dishonest, too.  From major national talk radio hosts to so-called conservative news websites and most everything in between, we're learning that people have been bought off to try to assure a Trump failure and GOPe win.  


The constant thing we are now hearing from almost every corner is that Donald Trump has virtually no chance of getting the 1237 delegates he needs to win the nomination.  What most don't realize is that that's just a smokescreen to try to dissuade people from supporting him.


In 2012 Mitt Romney was the nominee and even though Rick Santorum gave him a decent challenge, he really could not compete with Romney's GOPe big money donor backing.  


If Trump is doing as poorly as they want you to believe, then they better not look back at Mitt Romney's run in 2012.


According to a CBS News article from that time, at this point in 2012, Romney's delegate numbers were almost where Trump is right now.  


The delegate requirements in 2012 were different than 2016, but here's how Romney then compares to Trump now:


Romney in 2012 


No. of delegates required for GOP nomination:  1144


As of April 12, 2012 no. of delegates Romney had won:  645


No. still needed for Romney to win nomination:  499




Trump in 2016




No. of delegates required for GOP nomination:  1237


As of April 12, 2016 no. of delegates Trump has won:  755


No. still needed for Trump to win nomination:  482




So, those who think Trump's chances of winning enough delegates to win the nomination aren't paying attention to history.  


The biggest difference between the two is that Romney was a GOPe candidate with the establishment and their big money donors behind him.  Trump is not an establishment candidate and isn't taking big money donations.  That's why the GOPe is so against him.  If he won't take the money from the big money donors, they can't control him.


Sometimes the best way to tell which candidate to support is to look at who their enemies are.  No other candidate has the "right" enemies that Trump does.  Here are some examples:



  • Mexico has warned America against electing Trump because they will see a wall go up that will close down access for their people to come to America illegally and no longer be a burden on their system. Trump will also eliminate the terrible trade deals between Mexico and the U.S. so that they no longer get the economic advantage over America.  Mexico's leadership is so worried about this that they are already replacing their representatives to the U. S. to try to stop these things.

  • Russia has warned America against electing Trump and suggested problems may arise because they are concerned about America's military becoming strong again under Trump, which would weaken their ability to continue their aggressive actions throughout the world.

  • China has warned America against electing Trump suggesting both the same kinds of problems that Russia has threatened us about because they, too, are in the middle of a huge military buildup and know that only America could stop them.  They have also threatened our economic relations because they are dependent on the trade deals with America to keep their economy growing.  They know that Trump would stop their currency manipulation and end their upper hand against us economically.

  • ISIS has threatened America against electing Trump.  That should speak for itself.

  • Even Japan, who has long been our friend and trading partner has expressed concern against a Trump election because they, like China, have taken advantage of the U. S. for decades with trade agreements that help them and harm the U. S.

That list of threats, warnings, complaints, or whatever you want to call them, should be enough by themselves to tell Americans who will make America stand strong and tall again on the world stage.  

Of the 17 other Republicans who entered the primaries and all the Democrats, too, not one has caused that kind of reaction from any other country or terrorist group.  

Why?  

Because those countries (and the terrorists) know that they don't have to worry about the other candidates.  They only have to worry about Donald Trump.


That's a strong draw for voters to support him.  That's why no other Republican has drawn anywhere near the crowds that Trump has.  Americans are tired of our country being taken advantage of and laughed at on the world stage.


In fact, I heard that in the past couple days one of the other Republican candidates had an event where they removed the chairs so people had to stand.  The crowd was only a couple hundred people, at most.  But the campaign claimed it was standing room only.  They are trying to paint a picture that isn't truly accurate.

The media won't tell you those kinds of things, though, because they are determined to get an establishment candidate nominated.


When the truth is known, it's apparent that Trump represents a unique movement in American history.  He is far from knocked out of this campaign.  What happens in the next 60 days will be fascinating to watch because we will see how successful the GOPe is at stopping Trump or if it will have to be decided at a contested convention.