The Horse Sense Blog compares the nonsense in today's news with good ol' fashioned horse sense


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Tuesday, May 10, 2016

Trump's General Election Voter Turnout Will Break Records

Here's the Nonsense:  Trump may be the nominee, but he stands no chance of getting many votes in the general election.

Here's the Horse Sense:  Contrary to what the mainstream and so-called conservative media want you to believe, Trump is set to break records winning the general election.

There is an attempt in both mainstream and so-called conservative media to paint a picture that the nomination of Donald Trump will cause a huge loss against Hillary Clinton.  Of course these claims are based on nothing legitimate.  It's a fact that polls taken prior to an actual match up of candidates are inaccurate.  Last spring the polls showed Trump doing very poorly in the primaries.  Yet within one month of his entering the race on June 16, 2015, he was leading in the polls and has remained there since.  Don't expect anything less in the general election against Hillary Clinton.

Trump has set record after record in the primaries.  He's received more primary votes than any Republican in history.  His rallies are consistently huge.  So large, in fact, that while his competitors have had rallies of hundreds or, at best, a few thousand, Trump has consistently packed the largest venues they can find with attendance of 10,000, 15,000, 25,000 and more.  People stand in line for hours in all types of weather to attend those rallies.  

Americans who have never voted go to Trump rallies and are registering Republican and voting for Trump.  Democrats are leaving their party and registering Republican to vote for Trump.  State officials across the country are reporting that thousands of people are changing parties or registering for the first time to vote for Trump.  This is not a regional phenomenon.  Contrary to what the media and his competitors want you to believe, it is not a limited demographic.  People of all races, creeds, colors, and gender are supporting Donald Trump.

Voter turnout is setting records across the country.  

In 2008, 21.9 million Republicans voted in the primaries.  

In 2012 a little over 19 million voted in the primaries.  

In 2016 reports show that 26, 561,719 have already voted.  And the primaries aren't over yet. 

There are still 9 states left to have primaries and we certainly don't know what their voter turnout will be.  There is no reason to believe they won't also have record turnout compared to the last 2 elections. However, to be conservative in our estimate, we should not assume any increase in turnout.  In 2012 and 2008 the GOP voter turnout in each of the remaining primary states was as follows:

State:                       2012                   2008
Nebraska                 186,544              138,752
West Virginia           112,416                  1,100
Oregon                    287,955              353,476
Washington              50,764               530,509
California             1,935,658            2,932,811
Montana                 140,457                 95,730
New Jersey            232,116                566,201
New Mexico             90,113                110,939
South Dakota           51,145                 60,964
Total                    3,087,168            4,790,482

So, using conservative estimates, let's assume that voter turnout will be the same low total as 2012 for these remaining primaries.  If we add those 3,087,168 to the already cast 26,561,719 votes we have a total of 29,648,887 estimated votes this primary season.  

In 2008 there were 58.1 million republican votes in the general election.  That's a 265% increase over the primaries.  (21.9 million increased 265% = 58.1 million). 

In 2012 there were 59.2 million republican votes in the general election.  That's a 308% increase over the primaries.  (19 million increased 308% = 59.2 million)  

With record turnouts this year it is only logical that we will see huge turnouts in the general election, too.  However, since we are trying to be conservative in our estimates, let's assume that the general election turnout this year does not increase as much from the primaries as it did in 2012 or even 2008. Let's assume that the primary turnout only increases 250% in 2016.

If we take our 2016 primary estimate of 29,648,887 and increase that 250% we get a record-setting Republican general election turnout of 74,122,217 voters.

Barack Obama won the general election in 2008 with over 66 million votes over John McCain's 58.1 million votes.  Barack Obama won again in 2012 with 62.3 million votes over Mitt Romney's 59.2 million votes.

These conservative estimates would put Trump more than 8 million votes higher than Obama's big win in 2008 and almost 12 million more votes than Obama's 2012 win.  And with Hillary being seen as untrustworthy and unlikable, it's highly doubtful she could pull in as many votes as Obama.  In fact, with 40% of Bernie Sanders' supporters saying that if Hillary's the Democrat nominee, they'll consider supporting Trump, there's a big chance Hillary will set a low turnout record for the Democrat Party. 

When Trump says what is happening is a movement, he's right.  It's not just people following a reality TV star.  They see someone who finally will stand up and say what they've been thinking for years.  They see someone who addresses issues that other candidates avoid or dance around.  They see the ONLY candidate that can't be bought by the big money donors that control EVERY OTHER REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE.

The general election is going to be very interesting.  Trump is poised for a massive victory.  The American people who have watched their lives destroyed and their children's futures mortgaged have had enough.  They see through the same old Washington tricks that many who spend their time following politics far more closely have missed.

Everyday Americans have decided they want their country back.  And they're coming out to take it back.  Way back in December of 2014 I predicted Trump would run and win the nomination.  Many were skeptical and laughed.  But Trump's done it because he understands the frustration of the American people.  

Why is that?  

It's because he works with everyday Americans on a daily basis.  He's on construction sites talking to the people who build the buildings and work hard like most Americans to build a good life for themselves and a future for their children.  He's heard them talk about what they're losing because of the politicians.  And he articulates that understanding in a way that average Americans recognize it and embrace his candidacy.

Back in December 2014 I also said that Trump would win the presidency.  Everyday Americans are demanding change and they realize that only Trump has a chance to bring it to them.  They know that our political system is so broken that only someone who is a total outsider has a chance at making changes that will turn America around.  

That's why Trump is winning and why you can expect a record-breaking general election.