The Horse Sense Blog compares the nonsense in today's news with good ol' fashioned horse sense

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Monday, August 29, 2016

According To The Media, Trump Should Give Up Because He's Already Lost The Election

Here's the Nonsense:  Hillary Clinton has the election in the bag.  Every news source I look at says it's all over for Trump.  He might as well go home.

Here's the Horse Sense:  It's way too early to conclude the election is already over.  In fact, what you're seeing from the media may actually be efforts to get you to think it's over and not vote. There's all sorts of evidence that not only is the race not over yet, but Hillary isn't doing as well as they'd have you believe.

Is it just me, or have any of you noticed that the media keep telling us that Trump is losing and Hillary is winning?  The media wants us to think Trump is losing so badly that he might as well give up.  They go on and on about how badly he's losing.  They'd want you to believe that his poll numbers are so bad that they are in the negatives at this point.  

Here is part of a list compiled by the Capital Research Center of some of the things the media has said in just a 2 week period this month about how badly Trump is doing (this list is very long but should make a point about their ceaseless efforts to destroy Trump's campaign) :

August 9th:

  • CNN - Alison Kosik says "And Donald Trump, he's trying to elevate the tone of his campaign.  He is trying to get back on track after a couple of really rough weeks and plummeting poll numbers like this new Monmouth poll showing Hillary Clinton breaking out to a 13 point lead."
  • Yahoo News - "More Republicans broke ranks Tuesday with their party's White House nominee Donald Trump, issuing dire warnings that his recklessness and lack of policy chops would put the United States in danger.  Facing sinking poll numbers and anger in the party..."

August 12th:

  • MSNBC - (Chris Hayes) "For a week that was supposed to turn it all around for the Trump campaign, the past few days could not have gone much worse.... Coming up with Trump's poll numbers in freefall, the right wing conspiracy machine is working in overdrive."
  • CNN - "Tonight Trump's poll numbers are falling with new surveys showing him trailing Hillary Clinton in the critical battleground states of Virginia, North Carolina, Florida and Colorado.  Gearing fallout from a Trump loss, Majority Leaders Mitch McConnell is now saying that the chances of Republicans keeping control of the Senate are 'very dicey.'"
  • Fox News - (Eric Bolling) "The Trump campaign, which is falling further behind in the polls is really trying to double down on this character issue and that's where they bring in discussion about emails."

August 13th:

  • CNN - "...some Republicans are worrying that Donald Trump's plummeting poll nubmers could cost them the Senate.... Republicans are trying to defend twice as many seats as the Democrats, and on top of that, Donald Trump's poll numbers have been plummeting, and that makes it even tougher...."

August 14th:

  • Washington Post - "Trump also saw his poll numbers drop - a Washington Post/ABC News poll released last Sunday showed that Clinton has widened her lead to 8 points over Trump nationally.  A Wall Stree Hournal/NBC News/Marist poll released Friday shows that Clinton has opened a wide lead over Trump in the battleground states of Colorado, North Carolina and Virginia.  Trump also trails Clinton in Florida, according to the poll."

August 15th:

  • The Charlie Rose Show - (Charlie Rose) "We begin this evening with the 2016 presidential election.  Donald Trump is seeking to stabilize his campaign after weeks of stepping on his message and declining poll nmbers."
  • CNN - "...campaign officials have failed to tame the gaffe-prone candidate and put him back on track and back on messagec conceding that Trump may be beyond help.  Now Trump campaign chairman Paul Managort was pressed [by CNN's Jake Tapper] about the narrative and Trump's falling poll numbers in some battleground states...."
  • The White House Bulletin - "Media coverage of the reaction from Donald Trump's campaign to a critical New York Times report, which described his campaign as being in disarray amid falling poll numbers and a candidate who will not heed the advice of his aides, is largely negative, describing the campaign as lashing out...."

August 16th:

  • Roll Call - [The Wall Street Journal editorialized:] "If [his advisers] can't get Mr. Trump to change his act by Labor Day, the GOP will have no choice but to write off the nominee as hopeless.  As for Mr. Trump, he needs to stop blaming everyone else and decide if he wants to behave."

August 17th:

  • CNN - "Trump is falling further behind int he latest polls.... we jave been reporting that Republicans have been biting their nails as they've seen on headline after headline, negatively impacting the Trump campaign, those poll numbers dropping.... and there's been a general worry that those - Trump's poll numbers, which you mentioned are dropping across the country particularly in those battleground states, would affect the local races as well."
  • CNN also on 8/17 - "Twenty-seven days after his coronation in Cleveland and post-convention bounce, Donald Trump's prospects appear to be dwindling...."
  • LA Times - "The moves follow weeks of falling poll numbers and months of infighting in Trump's campaign, as the nominee has struggled to overcome controversies that have sidetracked him from his core economic, security and immigration enforcement messages."
  • Christian Science Monitor - "Now with Trump rebooting after weeks of sinking poll numbers, the question is, what will Trump 3.0 look like?  He has given three well-received policy speeches in the last two weeks...."
  • Int'l Business Times - "Republican nominee Donald Trump may be sliding in the polls but that will not make him shake up his campaign strategy...."
  • CNN again on 8/17 - "Sources tell CNN that Trump has grown frustrated with Manafort specially in the face of falling poll numbers."

August 18th:

  • Boston Globe - (Chris Lehane) "Most of these candidates have just one moment during the summer. Donald Trump has one on a daily basis, which is a deep, dark, dank, unspinnable place to be in."  To win in November, Trump, who has fallen perilously behind in polls following a string of self-inflicted wounds, must overcome historically daunting odds.
  • NBC News- "Of all the campaign issues that incumbent Republican senators face in 2016, the most vexing may be Donald Trump.  As their party's presidential nominee sinks in the polls, Republican senators in battleground states must decide if they should align with him...."
  • NY Times - "While Republicans anticipate that their down-ballot candidates will also be able to outpace Mr. Trump's share of the vote, national and local party officials are increasingly concerned that he is in danger of being so soundly defeated that even their best prepared candidates will not be able to withstand the backlash to the to top of the ticket."
  • Wall Street Journal (re: NY Times article above) - "Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump's inflammatory campaign style and falling poll numbers gives Democrats hope that they can pick off Republican candidates further down ballot, who must weigh carefully how close to get to Trump."

August 19th:

  • Politico - "...Trump made a series of inflammatory statements after the convention that sent his poll numbers into free fall.  Still, there's some optimism that this time will be different."
  • Reuters - "Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump has apologized for past remarks that 'may have caused personal pain' as he sought to refocus his message in the face of falling opinion poll numbers in his first speech since shaking up his campaign team this week."
  • MSNBC - (Joy Reid) "In the face of withering criticism and sinking poll numbers, Donald Trump kicked off lastnight's campaign speech in Charlotte, NC, by expressing regret...."

August 20th:
CNN - (Martin Savidge) - "Donald Trump's falling polling numbers, they are fueling GOP concerns that the presidential candidate could hurt Republicans in tight congressional races.... John Phillips is a CNN Political Commentator and Trump supporter.  So Joh, I'll start with you.  How vulnerable do you see hat they're calling down ballot Republicans if the polling numbers continue to fall for Donald Trump?  How bad off are they?"

August 22nd:

  • Reuters - "On Thursday, Trump apologized for his past controversial comments that 'may have caused personal pain' as he attempted to refocus his message int he face of falling opinion poll numbers."
  • Associated Press - "After tumultuous stretch of gaffes and falling poll numbers for Donald Trump, top GOP campaign and party officials insisted Sunday that their presidential nominee is getting back on track and will catch up with Democrat Hillary Clinton by around Labor Day."

Yet no one notices that those against Trump are using many of the same types of criticisms of him as they used of Reagan in 1980.  They saw Reagan as the outsider that he was and wanted no part of him.  Reagan ran against incumbent Democrat President Jimmy Carter and Independent John Anderson.  But the poll results for Reagan in August/September 1980 were nothing for his campaign to feel good about:

August/September 1980:

  • Reagan 39%
  • Carter 39%
  • Anderson 14%

But by election day these were the results:

  • Reagan 51%
  • Carter 41%
  • Anderson 7%

Yes, it's possible Trump is in trouble, but when you consider some other facts it should make you pause.  Remember that Hillary:
  • Hasn't had a press conference since December 2015
  • Only takes softball questions in the rare occasion she allows the media to ask one
  • Had huge numbers of people at the DNC Convention shouting "Lock Her Up" (yes, that didn't just happen at the RNC Convention, it happened on the convention floor at the DNC Convention, too)
  • Can't get crowds anywhere near the size Trump does to her events (From Aug. 1-25 Hillary Clinton held 11 events with a total of 10,620 attendees.  She averaged 965 attendees per event. Donald Trump held 29 events with a total of 168,280 attendees.  He averaged 5803 attendees per event.)
If Hillary is doing so well, then why can't she get crowds at her events that are of similar size to Trump's?

Political pollster Pat Cadell appeared on Fox News Channel this weekend with some interesting comments, as this screenshot from Breitbart shows:

And later in the interview he said:

Don't forget, too, that huge numbers of Americans are showing up at Trump rallies and when asked about their view of America's political environment they say such things as:
  1. They are fed up with the system that has taken America to this low point.
  2. They are worried for the future of their children and grandchildren.
  3. They realize that Hillary will destroy what's left of our freedoms.
  4. They recognize that Hillary is just another term of Obama's policies that have put America in such bad shape.
I have one more thing for you to think about.  Trump has been proclaimed dead in his chances over and over and over again.  His competitors in the primaries, the establishment GOP, the NeverTrumpers, the media, and the Democrats have all proclaimed over and over again that he was done and it was over.  

Yet every single time Trump has risen up and gained even more momentum.  No one has been able to stop him.

If I were a betting person the last thing I'd do is bet on Trump being out.  He's proven numerous times in this campaign that he's a formidable force and will not easily be beaten.

He's not out.  He's been coming on strong against Hillary.  Her campaign is frantically fundraising and buying advertising, but if she was a guaranteed winner, why would they be so frantic?

They are also keeping Hillary out of sight as much as possible (they know that when she stays out of sight she does better with voters).  Between now and the first debate in late September there are numerous events on her campaign's schedule, but all of them are scheduled to be handled by surrogates for her.  She is not currently scheduled to appear until that first debate on September 26.

The media and Democrats wouldn't be acting the way they are if they weren't scared that Trump will beat them.  

There is still a long way to go before election day.  Most Americans don't even pay attention to the presidential election until after Labor Day.  By then the kids are back in school, summer is essentially over, and they are settling in to their fall schedules.  That's when the actually start to pay attention to the candidates and what they are saying.  The 2 months between Labor Day and Election Day will tell the story, and yet don't forget what happened to Reagan.  Up until the very end they had him pegged to lose and he won in a landslide.  

2016 may hold similar results for America's future.