The Horse Sense Blog compares the nonsense in today's news with good ol' fashioned horse sense

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Thursday, October 6, 2016

How Hurricane Matthew Could Choose The Winner Of The Presidential Election

Here's the Nonsense:  The election will not be impacted by a major weather event.  The idea that weather could affect an election is silly.

Here's the Horse Sense:  How, why, and whether people vote is impacted by their personal lives.  What this major hurricane could do to the presidential election is so significant that it could determine who our next president will be.

The presidential election is down to the last month and it's anybody's guess as to who will win.  All along I have said that Trump will only lose if the Democrats are not successful in their use of voter fraud and election tampering.  I generally still hold to that, but realize there is one other way that Hillary could win and that's dependent on what happens with Hurricane Matthew.

I believe that a natural disaster could determine the outcome of the U. S. presidential election.  Election outcomes are not always in the control of the voters, and that is not just due to the corruption in our system, but can also be due to things we can't control, let alone expect.

Hurricane Matthew appears likely to hit Florida in the early hours of Friday morning.  The exact location of landfall is unknown at this point but it could affect a large portion of Florida.  In doing so the damage could be not just big, but larger than anything Florida has seen from a hurricane in the past, even Hurricane Andrew, which set records for the amount of destruction, may end up being much smaller in cost than Hurricane Matthew will be.

If Hurricane Matthew hits Florida and does severe damage, the impact on the citizens of Florida will be so great that it would likely push Florida to being a win for Hillary Clinton. And Florida is a key state in the presidential race.  In fact, many believe it could decide the election.

But why would it go to Hillary if the hurricane's damage is large?  For two simple reasons:

1.)  When disaster strikes, Americans tend to not vote for change.  Politicians in office throw every resource they can at disaster recovery and the voters respond by voting to keep the status quo.  They want consistency in their lives when their lives have been turned upside down.  Politics doesn't matter as much as stability and so they tend to vote to leave things alone and support the people who sent them aid. 

That's essentially what happened when Hurricane Sandy hit the northeast just prior to the 2012 election.  Mitt Romney's campaign was brought almost to a standstill and Obama was seen as taking action.  Voters responded by supporting Obama even though technically there wasn't really anything that Romney could have done to offset the resources Obama committed to relief efforts.  

In this election, even though Barack Obama isn't personally running for reelection, his policies are running through the candidacy of Hillary Clinton.  She represents a 3rd term of Barack Obama and would, therefore, be seen as stability at a time of disaster.  Many voters would reflexively vote for her if their lives are in turmoil.

2.)  The other issue that would drive Florida to Hillary is that the infrastructure damage would make voting very hard for many people.  And, once again due to the personal impact of the hurricane, many Floridians would either not easily be able to vote or they simply wouldn't care.  After all, when you've just lost your home, belongings, and possibly suffered personal injury or even the loss of loved ones, the election doesn't seem as important as just trying to get through the crisis.  So, most likely many people wouldn't bother to vote and low voter turnout would also help Hillary.

It's just that simple.  Hurricane Matthew could determine who wins our presidential election.  There are conspiracy theorists who believe that this hurricane was geo-engineered to hit Florida and do just that.  They know that a major disaster a month before the election would leave people's lives in shambles and drive the results in Florida to be a Hillary win and thereby have a good chance of being the deciding factor in who is our next president.

While I'm not embracing the conspiracy theory, I do think that a natural disaster could very well be the driving force (no pun intended) in whether America wins or loses in this election.